It’s been a minute since my last newsletter. A business trip and family business kept me busy. I return to Convulsions with three stories about misconceptions, when reality trumped expectations. Two are from the world of politics, one from sports and life.
Story #1
President Trump's draconian immigration policies have reshaped the public's view on the issue in ways he could not have expected.
According to a new Gallup polling, Americans now see the value of immigration more positively and mass deportations less positively. Here's how Dan Balz sums up the polling for The Washington Post:
Last year, 55 percent of Americans said they wanted a reduction in immigration, according to Gallup. Today, that’s dropped to 30 percent.
Gallup also notes that a record 79 percent of Americans say immigration is a good thing for the country. That’s a 15-point jump in the past year.
Support for hiring more border agents, a policy financed by the new budget the president signed on July 4, has declined by 17 points in the past year.
Support for deporting all undocumented immigrants has dropped nine points, to 38 percent.
Support for allowing undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens has risen eight points to 78 percent — though that’s a bit lower than the 84 percent in 2016.
The percentage of Republicans who support a path to citizenship has risen from 46 percent a year ago to 59 percent today.
Finally, Balz writes, “The Post’s average of high-quality polls shows a clear deterioration in Trump’s approval rating on immigration. In May, the average showed Americans evenly divided. The average so far in July shows 42 percent saying they approve and 54 percent disapproving.
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Story #2
While the public has soured on Trump’s immigration policies, Americans seem to be giving him grace on the economy.
In a story headlined, “The U.S. Economy Is Regaining Its Swagger,” The Wall Street Journal notes that consumer confidence tanked early this year amid Trump’s tariff blitz and the S&P 500 stock index fell by 19%. But now:
The stock market is reaching record highs. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which tumbled in April to its lowest reading in almost three years, has begun climbing again. Retail sales are up more than economists had forecast, and sky-high inflation hasn’t materialized—at least not yet.
The story’s two authors quote one analyst eating crow. “We’ve been surprised again and again by consumers,” said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays. In April, Millar predicted that the U.S. economy would likely go into recession this year. He now expects it to keep growing, albeit at a slow pace.”
To be sure, there is a to-be-sure paragraph:
There are still signs of turbulence in the U.S. economy. Growth has been subdued. Inflation, while down from pandemic peaks, is still higher than the Federal Reserve would like. Manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth straight month in June, and immigration raids are damping spending among Hispanic consumers.
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Story #3
When Scottie Scheffler won the British Open on Sunday he nonchalantly shook hands and doffed his cap. He didn't celebrate in the way we’ve come to expect — at least not until his wife and baby son crept onto the course and he saw something worth celebrating. Then he threw his hat in the air and ran in for a hug.
It was the perfect moment for the world's greatest golfer who started the week by telling reporters that winning is great but it's fleeting. It's not everything.
"It’s great to win tournaments,” he said Tuesday. “It’s a lot of fun. Sometimes the feeling only lasts about two minutes, it seems like, when you’re celebrating. And then it’s like, ‘Okay, now you’ve got to do all this other stuff,’ meaning trophy presentations and interviews and interactions with sponsors, “which is great. But sometimes the feeling of winning only lasts a few seconds. It’s pretty exciting and fun, but it just doesn’t last that long.”
But a family's love can last forever.
Fournier Flurries
Catching you up on Convulsions columns you may have missed:
Are you proud to be an American? Your responses slayed me.
A vital cog for democracy and social well-being is dying a rapid death
“Heckuva job, Donnie.’ Government incompetence surrounding the Texas floods is reminiscent to the Hurricane Katrina response in 2005 — with one major difference.
Three minutes later, Mr. Zients hit “reply all” and wrote, “I approve the use of the autopen for the execution of all of the following pardons.” Mr. Zients was not president."
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