In 2011, six years before his first presidency, Donald Trump slimed then-President Barack Obama with an unfounded accusation that reads this morning as prescient self-projection. “Our president will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate,” Trump said. “He's weak and he's ineffective. So the only way he figures that he's going to get reelected — and as sure as you're sitting there — is to start a war with Iran.”
Now we’re left to wonder if the only way Trump figured he could reverse his political tailspin in 2025 is to start a war with Iran.
There is so much else we don’t know about Saturday night’s surprise attack.
Were the Iranian nuclear facilities “completely and totally obliterated,” as Trump maintained in an East Room statement flanked by three dead-eyed Cabinet members?
Why did Trump disregard the assessment of U.S. intelligence officials who said Iran was not seeking a nuclear weapon? Told that his director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, had shared that view, Trump told reporters, “I don’t care what she said, I think they were very close to having one.”
Will Iran retaliate against U.S. troops and assets? If so, will Trump hit back and how far does the conflict spiral? The president warned ominously Saturday night that “many targets” are left inside Iran.
After Trump tore up Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran and scuttled his own diplomatic path in a rain of bunker-busting bombs Saturday night, does Iran now race to build a nuclear weapon? Do they have any other choice?
Is this another “forever war?”
Will Congress provide meaningful oversight and/or exercise its authority to sanction war?
Will Trump pay a political price for breaking his campaign promise to keep America out of future wars? In particular, will his “America First” base consider the attack another Middle East overreach in line with Iraq and Afghanistan?
Will Democrats respond in a manner worthy of an effective opposition party? Can they do so without looking weak on national security?
Why did Trump break decades of bipartisan war-making norms by keeping top Democrats on the intelligence committees in the dark about his war plans? The White House only briefed top Republicans.
Trump said he’d wait two weeks to decide whether to bomb Iran. He didn’t. Was that a strategic piece of disinformation? Or is Trump calling audibles in a nuclear standoff?
Is the president’s national security team up to the job? Trump doesn’t seem to think so: In the runup to the attack, he sidelined two cornerstones of his war Cabinet, the defense secretary and the direction of U.S. intelligence
Who is running the U.S. policy in the Middle East, the president of the United States or the prime minister of Israel?
What was with that awkward ending to Trump’s remarks Saturday night? “We love you God,” he said.
As sure as you’re sitting there, Saturday’s attack is not the end of this story.
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Five lessons learned from recent-past U.S. military actions. When it comes to initial reports:
1. Don’t believe the president.
2. Don’t believe the Pentagon
3. Don’t believe the media
4. Don’t believe the enemy.
5. Don’t trust your biases and first impressions.
Take a breath. Let the dust settle for 48-72 hours. And only then can we begin to understand whether Trump stumbled into the right decision or bumbled into another Middle East disaster.
In case you missed one of my free posts this past week, here’s the latest in “Fournier Flurries.”
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My Reply: Getting to Hard Truths
Subscribers’ questions on Trump’s veracity, a president’s power, a journalist’s missions, and an editor’s dilemma.
Blustering, Babbling Barfly Threatens War
Plus: Another Democratic official arrested by Trump agents.
No Guts, No Balls Pete Hegseth
Elissa Slotkin shows Democrats how to neuter MAGA
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