Actually, regardless of what happens in the general election I' m glad to see the people of Michigan vote for a man that stands up for his beliefs and represents polices that help the working class rather then Wall Street and corporate America, "Playing it safe" with a moderate candidate that is part of the establishment gives us the same old bullshit that helped MAGA arise and the Democrats become the passive lambs that Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have consistently exhibited. Are we going to stand up to the oligarchy or not?
McMorrow played the spoiler, even if unintended. With elections that are more and more on the edge, the “edge” vote said, “no thanks” to both the major Dem candidates, further amplifying the break in the party that can’t seem to make up its mind what it stands for. Sayed has a tough road to unite the party behind him. Dems likely just saw their chances for 26 and 28 go down in flames. Perhaps, McMorrow could mount an independent campaign but look for low turnout and party switching votes in Nov otherwise.
This is exactly why national pundits can describe the big picture but they mostly do not understand the reality on the ground locally. The same thing shows up in national polling vs local polling. Want to know what is happening in your state? Read the newspaper and find someone like Ron to listen to.
I fear the Dems have moved Michigan from likely Dem to Leans Republican. I fear that the disarray and blunders in Maine, let alone the DSA influence, combined with Collins voting against Blanche, re-elects her. IMHO, we just gave away the Senate last night. If the Dems in Wisconsin continue this and nominate Ms. Hong, as David Axelrod said, "if they nominate the chef, they are cooked." A state that sent Ron Johnson to the Senate three times is not electing a socialists as governor. If we keep giving away the store, we'll be left with nothing.
I could be wrong, Stephen, but I truly believe El-Sayed will fare better against Rogers than Stevesn would have. He's a better candidate. His message meets the moment. And he's got a movement behind him for a midterm election that will be won by the candidate with the most motivated voters. Rogers is formidable. He's also beatable.
Rogers last time lost by a point to a moderate Dem. Against a radical and divisive person like El-Sayed, he will win by close to 10. It is one thing to hold controversial views but it is entirely different when the candidate scares people. I rarely say this about a fellow Dem, but this guy scares me with his rhetoric, his ties to Hasan Piker, his alliance with the radical and anti semitic DSA. I’d never vote for a socialist, I’d never vote for anyone who can’t say Israel is a Jewish State and I wouldn’t dream of voting for a buddy of Hasan Piker. Many Democrats in Michigan who feel as I do, at least half of the voters we know exist based on last night’s vote, will never accept El-Sayed and will decide to either abstain or vote for Rogers to make sure his divisive and hateful voice never reaches the Senate.
I don’t see the future as clearly as you do, though I can say you’re overlooking how unpopular Trump has become in Michigan. And the election you site might as well have been a hundred years ago. Apples v Oranges
I could of course be wrong. But my feeling is that we have tried before to run on the “Trump is unpopular” theory and it never works. That’s only half the equation, the other half being showing that Dems are better. Right now my sense is that the public is poised to accept that the GOP has gotten so bad and the Dems moved enough to the center and sanity so that they can be trusted again. However, the solutions sought do not include socialism, antisemitism, the loony DSA platform or the division. Rogers ran against Slotkin in 2024 when Trump carried the state. Trump was aided by people like El-Sayed who laid the groundwork to abstain with their prior antics. A lot of Dems have not forgotten. There is zero evidence at all of Mike Rogers losing popularity in the state. He's losing no Republicans to El-Sayed and I doubt many independents are drawn to radicalism. To the contrary, he was neck and neck with Stevens and beating El-Sayed by 10 points. I have seen several polls showing that almost half of Stevens voters will not vote for El-Sayed. I'm sure that is true of Jewish voters and others as well who catch that unmistakable whiff of antisemitism permeating everything about he and his campaign. My fear extends to the reality that El-Sayed is top of the ticket and may cost the Dems votes all the way down the line. They DNC won't be able to cover up that autopsy.
As an Independent who donated to McMorrow, went ton
the Democratic primary and voted for Stevens.
Guess who I'm voting for?
El-Sayed
Staying home and bitching about things I disagree with (DSA adjacent, Piker, etc) bother me less than having a GOP majority for Trump.
This race proved even more why I won't align myself w either party. GOP is disgusting, Democrats are chronic losers and whiners. But I will do whatbis necessary to hobble Trump. I've been anti-Trump since the early 80s when I began reading the NYT.
Ron, this is an insightful piece. As I understand it, Mallory McMorrow was viewed as a pragmatic, mainstream Democrat, and she still received about 4% of the vote after suspending her campaign. In a race decided by roughly one point, it's reasonable to wonder whether those votes might have changed the outcome. If they did, the narrative shifts. This may be part of a broader trend, but I couldn't draw sweeping conclusions from a handful of elections alone. Not yet. But if you're right, pull out the rocking chairs for the Democratic establishment.
Thank you Ron. There is a 50/50 chance that moderate Seth Moulton beats progressive Ed Markey in the 9/1 MA Dem Primary. IF that happens, doesn't that just put a wet blanket over the DSA fire and confirm the theory that it's all about voters angry over the status quo. Something that happens about every 2 to 4 years in the US?
I really don’t understand some of these comments. MAGA is a racist movement. It is utterly and completely corrupt. It does not hold power to account. It desires to rule rather than serve.
The liberal wing of the Democratic Party is the exact opposite. It is not racist - objections to Israel’s behavior in Gaza are not racism ir anti-semitism. It is for the welfare of the American people - medical care, living wages, due process - which don’t come anywhere close to being radical in my understanding of America. It is holding power to account for both abuse and neglect.
This is NOT a cancer. It’s the chemotherapy. It’s not the disease but the potential cure.
Indeed it will. We will choose rapid destruction (MAGA), leisurely destruction (traditional Dems), or potential turnaround (liberal Dems). Those of us who choose rapid destruction because we are afraid of a potential turnaround, will get what we vote for. We will get destruction so rapid that no one - citizen or alien, Christian, Muslim, or Jew, male or female, rich or poor, gay or straight - is safe.
Ron, I'm curious about the percentage of Democratic primary voters yesterday vs. total registered voters across the board. Here in Virginia, where I voted in the suburbs of the 1st District, about 46,000 people turned out for Democrats vs. about 6.4 million registered voters total in the state. I worry about extrapolating too much from primaries. I also worry about elections turning into a national referendum on support for Israel. On the other hand, I hope to hear from some new voices, Lord knows there have to be other opinions besides Carville and Donna Brazile for crying out loud.
If Rogers wins (and his path just got a lot easier), how loud will the establishment told-you-so's be; and how chastened will the DSA be? We already know.
'Tis true, you gotta win it - to be in it - to win it. Done.
His political athlete characteristic is undeniable. Quite good. Not scary to me, but still not my milque toast centrist preference (which Rogers might be to me in a long past November, if not for the current occupant of the White House).
If El-Sayed can't tack a little to the center, though he is what he is, Rogers himself presents pretty normally.
That Florida-golf line might play for a bit, but I just have a hard time seeing this particular him dragging enough Stevens primary voters to the polls or persuading enough Michigan swings to vote for him.
And even though Buckley was a conservative, the mirror to his maxim holds for the establishment: who's the most liberal candidate able to win in November?
We shall see.
But it also argues to me for a return to smoky back rooms if this is the electoral system that we have. ;-)
When the voters let their perfect be the enemy of the good... Maybe I'm the guilty one if Slotkin only beat Rogers by 19K votes in 2024.
I’ll finish what you implied. If Rogers wins, DSA won’t be chastened a bit. They’ll insist that their “rightful victory” was stolen from them by AIPAC, and just double down for 2028. Never mind that the same dynamic didn’t stop El-Syad from winning yesterday. For the record, I will vote for El-Sayed in November because the alternative is worse, but a lot of Jewish Democrats in Michigan won’t.
I'm pretty sure that is this is really the Dem direction of travel this is assist those you call malignant cancers on the body politic. Like Corbyn helped Brexit in Britain. I'm not saying the Schumers weren't ossified, but unlike the McConnells they were not evil. And -- after a few years' remove the the AP -- I am starting to accept that there is evil in the world. It arrives in the form of a malignant cancer, so to speak.
McMorrow played the spoiler, even if unintended. With elections that are more and more on the edge, the “edge” vote said, “no thanks” to both the major Dem candidates, further amplifying the break in the party that can’t seem to make up its mind what it stands for. Sayed has a tough road to unite the party behind him. Dems likely just saw their chances for 26 and 28 go down in flames. Perhaps, McMorrow could mount an independent campaign but look for low turnout and party switching votes in Nov otherwise.
Actually, regardless of what happens in the general election I' m glad to see the people of Michigan vote for a man that stands up for his beliefs and represents polices that help the working class rather then Wall Street and corporate America, "Playing it safe" with a moderate candidate that is part of the establishment gives us the same old bullshit that helped MAGA arise and the Democrats become the passive lambs that Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have consistently exhibited. Are we going to stand up to the oligarchy or not?
You have to take power to do that. It’s all just whining and, in this time, the end of democracy unless that is done.
McMorrow played the spoiler, even if unintended. With elections that are more and more on the edge, the “edge” vote said, “no thanks” to both the major Dem candidates, further amplifying the break in the party that can’t seem to make up its mind what it stands for. Sayed has a tough road to unite the party behind him. Dems likely just saw their chances for 26 and 28 go down in flames. Perhaps, McMorrow could mount an independent campaign but look for low turnout and party switching votes in Nov otherwise.
Edit: McMorrow just endorsed Sayed.
Your article was intriguing but I take issue with calling right wing Republicans populist. They are fascists which is very different.
can be both
This is exactly why national pundits can describe the big picture but they mostly do not understand the reality on the ground locally. The same thing shows up in national polling vs local polling. Want to know what is happening in your state? Read the newspaper and find someone like Ron to listen to.
Thanks, Donna. I can testify to the ignorance of parachute journalists, having been one
I fear the Dems have moved Michigan from likely Dem to Leans Republican. I fear that the disarray and blunders in Maine, let alone the DSA influence, combined with Collins voting against Blanche, re-elects her. IMHO, we just gave away the Senate last night. If the Dems in Wisconsin continue this and nominate Ms. Hong, as David Axelrod said, "if they nominate the chef, they are cooked." A state that sent Ron Johnson to the Senate three times is not electing a socialists as governor. If we keep giving away the store, we'll be left with nothing.
I could be wrong, Stephen, but I truly believe El-Sayed will fare better against Rogers than Stevesn would have. He's a better candidate. His message meets the moment. And he's got a movement behind him for a midterm election that will be won by the candidate with the most motivated voters. Rogers is formidable. He's also beatable.
Rogers last time lost by a point to a moderate Dem. Against a radical and divisive person like El-Sayed, he will win by close to 10. It is one thing to hold controversial views but it is entirely different when the candidate scares people. I rarely say this about a fellow Dem, but this guy scares me with his rhetoric, his ties to Hasan Piker, his alliance with the radical and anti semitic DSA. I’d never vote for a socialist, I’d never vote for anyone who can’t say Israel is a Jewish State and I wouldn’t dream of voting for a buddy of Hasan Piker. Many Democrats in Michigan who feel as I do, at least half of the voters we know exist based on last night’s vote, will never accept El-Sayed and will decide to either abstain or vote for Rogers to make sure his divisive and hateful voice never reaches the Senate.
I don’t see the future as clearly as you do, though I can say you’re overlooking how unpopular Trump has become in Michigan. And the election you site might as well have been a hundred years ago. Apples v Oranges
I could of course be wrong. But my feeling is that we have tried before to run on the “Trump is unpopular” theory and it never works. That’s only half the equation, the other half being showing that Dems are better. Right now my sense is that the public is poised to accept that the GOP has gotten so bad and the Dems moved enough to the center and sanity so that they can be trusted again. However, the solutions sought do not include socialism, antisemitism, the loony DSA platform or the division. Rogers ran against Slotkin in 2024 when Trump carried the state. Trump was aided by people like El-Sayed who laid the groundwork to abstain with their prior antics. A lot of Dems have not forgotten. There is zero evidence at all of Mike Rogers losing popularity in the state. He's losing no Republicans to El-Sayed and I doubt many independents are drawn to radicalism. To the contrary, he was neck and neck with Stevens and beating El-Sayed by 10 points. I have seen several polls showing that almost half of Stevens voters will not vote for El-Sayed. I'm sure that is true of Jewish voters and others as well who catch that unmistakable whiff of antisemitism permeating everything about he and his campaign. My fear extends to the reality that El-Sayed is top of the ticket and may cost the Dems votes all the way down the line. They DNC won't be able to cover up that autopsy.
As an Independent who donated to McMorrow, went ton
the Democratic primary and voted for Stevens.
Guess who I'm voting for?
El-Sayed
Staying home and bitching about things I disagree with (DSA adjacent, Piker, etc) bother me less than having a GOP majority for Trump.
This race proved even more why I won't align myself w either party. GOP is disgusting, Democrats are chronic losers and whiners. But I will do whatbis necessary to hobble Trump. I've been anti-Trump since the early 80s when I began reading the NYT.
Ron, this is an insightful piece. As I understand it, Mallory McMorrow was viewed as a pragmatic, mainstream Democrat, and she still received about 4% of the vote after suspending her campaign. In a race decided by roughly one point, it's reasonable to wonder whether those votes might have changed the outcome. If they did, the narrative shifts. This may be part of a broader trend, but I couldn't draw sweeping conclusions from a handful of elections alone. Not yet. But if you're right, pull out the rocking chairs for the Democratic establishment.
Hey Bob. I thought I was pretty careful not to make predictions but to point to potential trend lines that beed to play out
Your were. I may have overstated the matter.
I take your point
Thank you Ron. There is a 50/50 chance that moderate Seth Moulton beats progressive Ed Markey in the 9/1 MA Dem Primary. IF that happens, doesn't that just put a wet blanket over the DSA fire and confirm the theory that it's all about voters angry over the status quo. Something that happens about every 2 to 4 years in the US?
There is an exception to every rule. Only time will tell what time will bring
I really don’t understand some of these comments. MAGA is a racist movement. It is utterly and completely corrupt. It does not hold power to account. It desires to rule rather than serve.
The liberal wing of the Democratic Party is the exact opposite. It is not racist - objections to Israel’s behavior in Gaza are not racism ir anti-semitism. It is for the welfare of the American people - medical care, living wages, due process - which don’t come anywhere close to being radical in my understanding of America. It is holding power to account for both abuse and neglect.
This is NOT a cancer. It’s the chemotherapy. It’s not the disease but the potential cure.
Time will tell.
Indeed it will. We will choose rapid destruction (MAGA), leisurely destruction (traditional Dems), or potential turnaround (liberal Dems). Those of us who choose rapid destruction because we are afraid of a potential turnaround, will get what we vote for. We will get destruction so rapid that no one - citizen or alien, Christian, Muslim, or Jew, male or female, rich or poor, gay or straight - is safe.
Ron, I'm curious about the percentage of Democratic primary voters yesterday vs. total registered voters across the board. Here in Virginia, where I voted in the suburbs of the 1st District, about 46,000 people turned out for Democrats vs. about 6.4 million registered voters total in the state. I worry about extrapolating too much from primaries. I also worry about elections turning into a national referendum on support for Israel. On the other hand, I hope to hear from some new voices, Lord knows there have to be other opinions besides Carville and Donna Brazile for crying out loud.
I don't know the answer to your question but, apples to apples, it appears there were far, far more Democratic voters in Michigan than GOP voters.
Now write the story on November 4.
If Rogers wins (and his path just got a lot easier), how loud will the establishment told-you-so's be; and how chastened will the DSA be? We already know.
'Tis true, you gotta win it - to be in it - to win it. Done.
His political athlete characteristic is undeniable. Quite good. Not scary to me, but still not my milque toast centrist preference (which Rogers might be to me in a long past November, if not for the current occupant of the White House).
If El-Sayed can't tack a little to the center, though he is what he is, Rogers himself presents pretty normally.
That Florida-golf line might play for a bit, but I just have a hard time seeing this particular him dragging enough Stevens primary voters to the polls or persuading enough Michigan swings to vote for him.
And even though Buckley was a conservative, the mirror to his maxim holds for the establishment: who's the most liberal candidate able to win in November?
We shall see.
But it also argues to me for a return to smoky back rooms if this is the electoral system that we have. ;-)
When the voters let their perfect be the enemy of the good... Maybe I'm the guilty one if Slotkin only beat Rogers by 19K votes in 2024.
I’ll finish what you implied. If Rogers wins, DSA won’t be chastened a bit. They’ll insist that their “rightful victory” was stolen from them by AIPAC, and just double down for 2028. Never mind that the same dynamic didn’t stop El-Syad from winning yesterday. For the record, I will vote for El-Sayed in November because the alternative is worse, but a lot of Jewish Democrats in Michigan won’t.
If I were in Michigan, your conclusion is where I would be.
It’s the math of the general that matters the most.
I'm pretty sure that is this is really the Dem direction of travel this is assist those you call malignant cancers on the body politic. Like Corbyn helped Brexit in Britain. I'm not saying the Schumers weren't ossified, but unlike the McConnells they were not evil. And -- after a few years' remove the the AP -- I am starting to accept that there is evil in the world. It arrives in the form of a malignant cancer, so to speak.
McMorrow played the spoiler, even if unintended. With elections that are more and more on the edge, the “edge” vote said, “no thanks” to both the major Dem candidates, further amplifying the break in the party that can’t seem to make up its mind what it stands for. Sayed has a tough road to unite the party behind him. Dems likely just saw their chances for 26 and 28 go down in flames. Perhaps, McMorrow could mount an independent campaign but look for low turnout and party switching votes in Nov otherwise.