The Most Consequential Race of 2026 is Not in November
It's in Michigan on Tuesday
This newsletter is for and about you — witnesses to an age of acrimony and anxiety.
FOR THE BEST understanding of where restless voters are driving American politics in the next several cycles, pay close attention to the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan on Tuesday. While general elections in November will determine control of the House and Senate for the next few years, Tuesday’s primary is a better microcosm of the most convulsive era in politics in generations.
Rep. Haley Stevens versus Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is more than a tough race in Michigan. It’s a competition between the establishment wing of an ossified party and insurgent outsiders who believe their team has grown too soft, too moderate, and too accommodating toward the opposing party. These disruptors don’t forgive compromise or dissent. They embrace labels and push policies that would have seemed unfathomable just a few years ago. Does any of this sound familiar?
Even if you, like me, consider MAGA and President Trump to be malignant cancers on the body politic, you can’t ignore the fact that a growing swell of American voters is rightfully disgusted with how both parties are leveraging their monopolies — and this rise of insurgents on the far right and left may soon lead to a radical realignment of U.S. politics.
Here are the forces at play in Michigan that reflect broader national trends:
Status Quo versus Change: Stevens, a four-term congresswoman from a swing district outside Detroit, is the favorite of the Democratic establishment in Michigan and Washington. El-Sayed, a former Rhodes Scholar and public health official with no governing experience, is the political outsider promising to be a change agent. If there is one constant about 21st century politics it’s that voters across the spectrum hate The Establishment and crave change.
Moderate versus Liberal: Stevens is a moderate by nature and politics, a go-along, get-along lawmaker who brags about her ability to work with Republicans to get important things done. El-Sayed is an uncompromising populist progressive, promising to drive corporate money out of politics and provide every American free health care through Medicare.
Israel versus Palestine: Stevens is a mainstream pro-Israel Democrat who supports military aid for Jerusalem. Her campaign is fueled by about $30 million from pro-Israel donors. El-Sayed opposes unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel and calls the military operations in Gaza a genocide.
Christian versus Muslim: Stevens is a Christian. El-Sayed is a Muslim, and of all the voters who might oppose him, these are the two most toxic: People who hate Muslims and Democrats who say they’re not Islamophobic but won’t vote for El-Sayed because they fear his religion makes him unelectable.
Women versus Men: Stevens is just one of 128 women in the U.S. House, where more than 70% of the lawmakers are male. She wants to join the Senate, where just 16 women serve in the 100-member body. While the gender dynamic doesn’t seem to be a major theme of the Michigan campaign, America’s lingering paternalism is worth noting here.
Grit versus Charisma: Stevens did something extraordinary when El-Sayed supporters started mocking the congresswoman for her deep Michigan accent and generally awkward persona: She embraced the criticism with a self-effacing response that suggested the attacks were not aimed at her, but at all Michiganders. “A little bit of stick it to 'em” is her stab at gritty populism. As for El-Sayed, he’s one of the most talented political athletes in American politics, a politician who changes the chemistry in rooms and is as comfortable courting tiny audiences of moderates in northern Michigan public libraries as he is speaking to large audiences of liberal activists in ballrooms. I’ve seen him in both places. His retail politics skills remind me of the first politician I covered: Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas. If he wins Tuesday and again in November, El-Sayed will ride the rapacious winds of political celebrity and instantly become a Democratic star, even a potential presidential candidate.
Tuesday’s primary may not even decide who represents Michigan in the Senate; the Republicans nominee, Mike Rogers, is a formidable candidate. And it certainly isn’t going to settle some of the greatest issues of our day — radical populism, foreign adventurism, racism, sexism, and the celebritization of American politics.
But it will give us a bead on where we’re headed far beyond November.
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Here’s the version with the dashes removed:
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Ron,
We agree that gender is probably not a significant factor in this race.
Where I think you may be underestimating things is religion. Anecdotally, my sense is that it’s more of a factor than many people are willing to acknowledge publicly. It’s not something openly discussed at dinner parties, but I suspect some voters quietly wonder whether El-Sayed’s views on the Middle East, or simply the fact that he’s Muslim, could hurt him with certain parts of the electorate, particularly in northern Michigan. Whether those concerns are fair or not, they may exist. His strong support in Dearborn may also reinforce those perceptions among some voters elsewhere in the state. I don’t know the answer.
Michigan has traditionally been a purple state, which is one reason this race is so interesting. It may well prove to be a bellwether for where the Democratic Party is headed. Regardless, if Democrats lose this Senate seat, their path back to a majority becomes much more difficult.
One other observation: based on the clips I’ve seen, Stevens comes across as somewhat awkward and affected. I suspect this campaign has been her first real exposure to much of Michigan outside her own district. That, coupled with El-Sayed’s political skills, may help explain why he wins, perhaps even convincingly.
As always, thanks for giving us something worth thinking about.
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While Haley Stevens may reflect the Democratic leadership on Israel (esp Chuck Schumer), she's much closer to AIPAC than the median Democrat in Congress today. Mallory McMorrow, who lost traction to the right and left, was what I'd call "mainstream" of the Democratic Party on Israel.